When they were at the investment
bank Dresdner Kleinwort, strategists Albert Edwards and James
Montier were sometimes labeled as "permabears" because
of their persistently negative views on the excesses in global
financial markets, among other things.
To some, that would be enough
reason to dismiss their commentaries as worthless rants. But as of
2007, in fact, those two individuals were ranked number one in the
Global Strategy category for five straight years and number one as
a team across all sector categories for three straight years in
the annual Thomson Extel survey of analysts.
Aside from that, of course, their
concerns about the underlying health of the financial system
proved prescient, given the consensus view that the crisis now
occuring is the worst since the Great Depression.
Anyway, Edwards and Montier left
Dresdner, and over the past year or so, they have been toiling
away at French bank Societe Generale, where they serve as co-heads
of global strategy.
In "This
Week’s Advice: Canned Food, Guns and a Ham Radio,"
David Gaffen at the Wall Street Journal's MarketBeat
blog offers up a sampling of their latest no-nonsense insights on
where things are headed.
The prevailing view among
investors throughout the duration of the post-Bear Stearns
recovery rally has been that the U.S. and global economy might
continue to weaken, but economic performance would
merely be lackluster, not terrible.
Strategists at Societe Generale
say nuts to that in commentary today, lowering their recommended
weighting for equities to 30% and boosting their weighting for
bonds to 50%, saying “we are on the cusp of an equity
meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie
Krueger.”
Soc Gen strategists have been
bearish for about a decade, as they note in their commentary, as
they expected equities to go through a period of “valuation
de-rating similar to Japan.” Albert Edwards, strategist at the
bank, increased his low equity exposure to 45% earlier in the
year on expectations of a bear-market rally, but those days are
long past as he considers the possibility of a further decline
in stocks — and rants against those who would
mindlessly advise buying equities.
“One of the clearest
impressions that I will take away from working in this industry
is how darned bullish everyone wants to be,”
he writes. “To be sure, nobody likes to be a party-pooper but
the bias towards optimism in this industry is truly staggering.”
Seriously, Mr. Edwards. Tell us
how you really feel. “With many of our favored technical
indicators flipping from excess bearishness in January, to
excess bullishness today it is time to sell and head for the
hills,” he writes.