The Kiwi Rate Conundrum
By Adrian Ash
June 22, 2007
The central banks in the UK
and New Zealand keep raising interest rates, and the money
only soars as a result...
THE US FEDERAL RESERVE looks to be caught
between a rock of rising inflation and a hard place of
plunging house prices. But if you feel at all sorry for Ben
Bernanke and his team, pity the poor central bankers in London
and Auckland.
Every time they raise their interest rates, house prices go
up!
The Bank of England, for instance, has now hiked its lending
rate seven times in the last four years. At the June policy
meeting, the governor – Mervyn King – tried to raise rates
again, but he was out-voted by the government-appointed
bureaucrats on his team.
Now the currency markets reckon a hike in July is a shoo-in,
pushing the Pound back towards $2.00 again. Sterling is
flirting with a two-decade high versus the Yen, too.
But besides its interest-rate premium, there's little to love
in the Pound today. Investors wanting to buy
gold today might note that the truly historic real-estate
bubble – plus a surging trade gap and yawning government
deficit – is matched by the fastest growth in the Money
Supply since the late '80s.

What gives? After jumping off a
half-century floor way ahead of the four other major world
currencies, Pound Sterling interest rates have already reached
5.50%. The gilt market puts the cost of money a year from now
well above 6%.
But every time the Bank of England hikes its base rate, fresh
funds flood into London, seeking out yield and judging
Sterling a better place to sit than Dollars, Euros, Yen or
Swiss Francs.
This flood of cross-border cash from global investors gets
picked up by London's brokers and banks, but their job is to
lend money – not simply to pay interest on it. Nor can they
neglect to work their assets, not without angering their
shareholders. So they lend it out into the domestic economy.
Hence broad money growth (M4) rising at double-digits
year-on-year ever since the Bank of England began this hiking
cycle.
The upshot in the domestic UK economy? House prices in
Northern Ireland rose 54% in the last year alone. The average
home in London now costs £320,000 according to the
government's own data, equivalent to more than $630,000.
Down under on the opposite side of the world, meantime, the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces the same problem – only in
spades. Higher rates keep working against the RBNZ's
anti-inflationary aims. Every time they hike the cost of
money, more cash floods in the New Zealand Dollar – and the
more new lending results.

Fully convertible for 22 years,
the New Zealand Dollar this week touched an all-time high
versus the US greenback. Indeed, the Reserve Bank now presents
the world with a truly absurd spectacle – raising its
overnight lending rate to 8% to quash inflation, but also
trying to quash the rising Kiwi Dollar by selling it on the
currency market.
"What determines what happens with the currency is
ultimately what the Reserve Bank does with interest
rates," notes Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB Bank
in Auckland.
"That will keep the kiwi supported," he adds –
noting that all the currency intervention in the world won't
stop cross-border investors grabbing 8% interest and pushing
the Kiwi still higher again.
Indeed, until the rest of the world stops giving money away at
less than inflation – most especially the global money pumps
of China and Japan – the Pound and the Kiwi will only
attract fresh monetary inflation the higher their interest
rates go.
How long this absurdity continues to keep the BoE and RBNZ
trapped is anyone's guess. But investors waiting for the
impossible to stop being possible might be well advised to buy
gold ahead of the turnaround.



