Why is NFTRH "A Different Kind of Financial Market
Analysis"? NFTRH is different from services that follow
markets using conventional technical and fundamental analysis because
we have found that it is the relationships
between different markets and asset classes that provide the most
telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA
catches on, and certainly before evidence shows up in macro
fundamentals. NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate
understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out
daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line
before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is
different because the writer's career in business has taught him that
customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to
long-term success. Unsolicited comments
from subscribers show that NFTRH is on track and continually
improving. top
Is
NFTRH a stock picking service with buy and sell calls?
No, not really. Equity holdings are shown weekly and ideas are
presented either in
NFTRH weekly reports or by email updates, when the risk vs. reward is
thought to be good. The writer manages and illustrates actual
personal portfolios, not theoretical ones. NFTRH is much more
about getting the macro right than it is about stock picks. After
all, if the market's swings are managed correctly, the stock picking is
the relatively easy part. top
How
does NFTRH evaluate its prospective stock holdings?
Technical analysis is the writer's core competency when it comes to
evaluating equities. In addition, NFTRH has close relationships
and/or active subscriptions with quality services such as IKN Weekly, Mickey Fulp (Geologist), Metal Augmentor as well as
other accomplished and highly regarded fundamental stock analysts. top
I have heard good things
about your email
update services. Would you please elaborate? Email
updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH
service has evolved. Today (9.23.11), based on input from many
subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates
are to the overall service, especially during major turning points
and/or upheavals in the financial markets. Here is a sample update for your review. top
What
other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and
analysis? NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to SentimenTrader.com (sentiment is
a key component of successful contrarian market analysis), John
Williams' Shadowstats.com
(for guidance in discerning real data behind governmental economic
reporting) and the premium charting package at Stockcharts.com.
NFTRH is always on the lookout for new services to combine with the
writer's abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and
continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers. top
Is your
focus US-centric or global in nature? The writer is aware
that the country he calls home, the US, may well be slowly
falling behind ascendant, productive economies the world over.
The wonderful thing about investing is that it opens up one's
boundaries to the entire world. While there will be many swings
along the way, the writer believes in the concept of a "global leveling
of the playing field", to quote the words of NFTRH's 'charter
subscriber', a highly regarded financial firm partner with a global
focus. top
What is
the difference between your 'standard TA' and the so-called 'forensic'
indicators? Though uniquely tailored to the writer's
strengths, the standard TA is simply select combinations of well known
classic technical analysis. From there the work expands into
ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements
of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early
warning 'forensic' clues to likely future events. Examples of
these indicators would be the performance of 'junk' bonds vs.
investment grade, and the performance of silver vs. gold. In
essence, these can act like credit spreads and give major clues as to
macro turns that may be in the offing. Standard TA on the other
hand, simply projects based on nominal charts and certainly has a place
in the analysis as well. top
How did
you first become interested in the financial markets? The
writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in
a
previous cyclical bear market (2000-2003) and was driven to find out
what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an
adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly
self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary
viewpoint, the gains have been satisfactory, annualizing at about 35%
per year from 2002 through 2010. top
You
tout gains of 42.5% for 2010 and 151% from the NFTRH baseline (1st
issue, dated Sept. 28, 2008) at Dec. 31, 2010. Are these figures
before or after commissions and expenses? All portfolio
performance figures presented are after expenses, which is how
things work in the real world. NFTRH exists in the real world. top
Are you
an 'Inflationist' or a 'Deflationist'? Keynesian or Gold Bug?
None
of
the
above
as
pertains
to
investment
and
trading.
The
writer
strongly
believes that digging one's heels in to a given
viewpoint can inflict unnecessary damage upon one's finances.
NFTRH has identified what it calls the 'continuum' (a decades long
trend in treasury bonds) by which inflationary policy is enabled.
In his ultimate views the writer believes inflation is the trend
and that the first manifestation of any real deflation to come
might well be the final deflation for the current system.
Hence, the writer considers himself something of a gold bug in the big
picture, minus the 'us against them' mentality that stimulates
unhealthy emotional decisions. top
I just
subscribed... Now what? Shortly after subscribing
(usually
within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a
welcoming email with the latest issue of NFTRH attached, along with
instructions for logging in to the archive. Then you will receive
a full issue of NFTRH each Sunday along with interim email updates for
as long as the subscription remains active. top
I want
to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my
particular needs. Please monitor the blog and get a feel for the
writer. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed
than the blog in its analysis, but it helps to get familiar with the
brand of analysis, which is decidedly unconventional. Or simply
give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you
wish with no further obligation. top
Is the
annual subscription option refundable? No! If you
have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option. For the
record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in
sync with the letter's style. This can easily be done at any
time. top
Can you sum up your
philosophy in a simple paragraph? Why yes, in fact this
excerpt from NFTRH156 speaks directly to this question:
"Am I bullish? No, not overly so quite
yet. Am I bearish? Not in the near to intermediate term, but bigger
picture bear signals should be respected until they are negated. They
are a long way from negation. Some market analysis
serves up bold commentary on bullish and bearish cases over short,
intermediate and long-term horizons. NFTRH simply will not make this
commitment because I prefer to be right – or make on the fly
adjustments to get right – rather than
make calls that either scare or titillate people, and set the letter up
to be a proponent of one ideology or another." top
I no longer wish to
keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to
cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your
own PayPal account or send an email to gt @ biiwii.com with a request
to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the
email distribution list until the current payment expires.
Remember that annual subscriptions are not refundable. top
TA &
Commentary