Why is NFTRH "A Different Kind of Financial Market
Analysis"? NFTRH is different from services that follow
markets using conventional technical and fundamental analysis because
we have found that it is the relationships
between different markets and asset classes that provide the most
telling clues to pending market direction, often before standard TA
catches on, and certainly before evidence shows up in macro
fundamentals. NFTRH is different because its writer has an innate
understanding of human psychology and behavior and because he sets out
daily to make sure his own set of biases and assumptions are in line
before attempting to out think the market. Finally, NFTRH is
different because the writer's career in business has taught him that
customer service is of the utmost priority and is ultimately key to
long-term success. Unsolicited comments
from subscribers show that NFTRH is on track and continually
improving. top
Is NFTRH a market
timing service? In a word, yes. We absolutely do not wish to ride out
unfavorable intermediate-term market swings in service to any long-term view. That is
because we deplore major capital draw downs. We will often 'hold
the fort' over short-term periods in order to avoid being shaken out of
intermediate trends, but risk management is an ongoing and always
important component. So we time the markets, mostly on a risk vs.
reward basis. top
Is
NFTRH a stock picking service?
No! Equity holdings are shown weekly and ideas are
presented either in
NFTRH weekly reports or by email updates, when the risk vs. reward on a
given situation is
thought to be good. The writer manages and illustrates actual
personal portfolios, not theoretical ones. Individual stock picks
are not a priority, especially in the age of sector ETFs.
Portfolio management is the
priority. NFTRH is much more
about getting the macro right than about individual equities.
After
all, if the market's swings are managed correctly, the stock picking
(again, including ETFs) is
the relatively easy part. In short, if a stock picking
service is what you seek, you should look elsewhere. top
How
does NFTRH evaluate its prospective stock holdings in individual
companies?
Technical analysis is the writer's core competency when it comes to
evaluating equities. In addition, NFTRH has close relationships
and/or active subscriptions with quality services such as IKN Weekly, Mickey Fulp (Geologist), Metal Augmentor as well as
other accomplished and highly regarded fundamental stock
analysts. Finally, our macro work allows us to select from a
range of ETFs to easily buy a market or theme that is aligned with
current analysis. top
Who Should Subscribe
to NFTRH? Individuals who want a dedicated source that is
always, but ALWAYS on the job tracking the market's intermediate swings
and thus its opportunities for alternately growing and preserving
capital based on risk vs. reward. These individuals should NOT
need paint-by-numbers instruction, but rather know what to do with the
macro information provided. In short, NFTRH is for a
sophisticated readership and is not appropriate for a mass audience. top
Who Should Not
Subscribe to NFTRH? Individuals who wish to be told what
to do without the need to understand the 'whats' and 'whys' of what
they are doing. There is an educational aspect to the service
that many subscribers have come to
value. If you just want picks and if you just want to 'make
coin', this is likely NOT for you. top
I have heard good things
about your email
update services. Would you please elaborate? Email
updates have become increasingly valued by subscribers as the NFTRH
service has evolved. Today (9.23.11), based on input from many
subscribers, we have come to realize just how valuable these updates
are to the overall service, especially during major turning points
and/or upheavals in the financial markets. Here is a sample update for your review. top
What
other subscription services do you use to supplement your research and
analysis? NFTRH maintains premium subscriptions to SentimenTrader.com (sentiment is
a key component of successful contrarian market analysis), McClellan Financial for market
intelligence, Bespoke Premium
for unparalleled market research and the premium charting package at Stockcharts.com.
NFTRH is always on the lookout for new services to combine with the
writer's abilities, to provide the best possible overall service and
continual improvement to NFTRH subscribers. top
Is your
focus US-centric or global in nature? The writer is aware
that the country he calls home, the US, may well be slowly
falling behind ascendant, productive economies the world over.
The wonderful thing about investing is that it opens up one's
boundaries to the entire world. While there will be many swings
along the way, the writer believes in the concept of a "global leveling
of the playing field", to quote the words of NFTRH's 'charter
subscriber', a highly regarded financial firm partner with a global
focus. top
What is
the difference between your 'standard TA' and the so-called 'forensic'
indicators? Though uniquely tailored to the writer's
strengths, the standard TA is simply select combinations of well known
classic technical analysis. From there the work expands into
ratios between different markets and assets, combines various elements
of sentiment, momentum and macro-economic data points to give early
warning 'forensic' clues to likely future events. Examples of
these indicators would be the performance of 'junk' bonds vs.
investment grade, and the performance of silver vs. gold. In
essence, these can act like credit spreads and give major clues as to
macro turns that may be in the offing. Standard TA on the other
hand, simply projects based on nominal charts and certainly has a place
in the analysis as well. top
How did
you first become interested in the financial markets? The
writer saw his professionally managed funds declining significantly in
a
previous cyclical bear market (2000-2003) and was driven to find out
what happened and why. In 2002, all accounts were pulled from an
adviser and managed personally. Through hard work, a mostly
self-taught brand of technical analysis and a natural contrary
viewpoint, the gains have been satisfactory, annualizing at about 35%
per year from 2002 through 2010. top
You
tout gains of 42.5% for 2010 and 151% from the NFTRH baseline (1st
issue, dated Sept. 28, 2008) at Dec. 31, 2010. Are these figures
before or after commissions and expenses? All portfolio
performance figures presented are after expenses, which is how
things work in the real world. NFTRH exists in the real world. top
Are you
an 'Inflationist' or a 'Deflationist'? Keynesian or Gold Bug?
None
of
the
above
as
pertains
to
investment
and
trading.
The
writer
strongly
believes
that
digging
one's
heels
in
to
a
given
viewpoint
can
inflict
unnecessary
damage
upon
one's
finances.
NFTRH
has
identified
what
it
calls
the
'continuum'
(a
decades
long
trend
in treasury bonds) by which inflationary policy is enabled by the
system's deflationary 'need to correct' the excesses. An
inflationary regime continues as long as there is a perceived
deflationary threat to be battled by money printing policy
makers.
Hence,
the writer considers himself something of a gold bug in the big
picture, minus the 'us against them' mentality that promotes emotional
decision making. top
I just
subscribed... Now what? Shortly after subscribing
(usually
within 0-12 hours, depending on global time zones) you will receive a
welcoming email with the latest issue of NFTRH attached, along with
instructions for logging in to the archive. Then you will receive
a full issue of NFTRH each Sunday along with interim email updates for
as long as the subscription remains active. top
I want
to sign up, but I am just not sure if your style is for me and my
particular needs. Please monitor the site and sign up for the
free (and spam free) eLetter
to get a feel for the
writer. NFTRH is more formal and generally much more detailed
than the blog in its analysis, but it helps to get familiar with the
brand of analysis, which is decidedly unconventional. Or simply
give NFTRH a try with a monthly subscription and cancel at any time you
wish with no further obligation. top
Is the
annual subscription option refundable? No! If you
have any doubt whatsoever, please try the monthly option. For the
record, many monthly subscribers convert to annual after getting in
sync with the letter's style. This can easily be done at any
time through PayPal. top
Can you sum up your
philosophy in a simple paragraph? Why yes, in fact this
excerpt from NFTRH156 speaks directly to this question:
"Am I bullish? No, not overly so quite
yet. Am I bearish? Not in the near to intermediate term, but bigger
picture bear signals should be respected until they are negated. They
are a long way from negation. Some market analysis
serves up bold commentary on bullish and bearish cases over short,
intermediate and long-term horizons. NFTRH simply will not make this
commitment because I prefer to be right – or make on the fly
adjustments to get right – rather than
make calls that either scare or titillate people, and set the letter up
to be a proponent of one ideology or another." top
I no longer wish to
keep my subscription, how can I cancel it? If you wish to
cancel your monthly or annual subscription, simply do so within your
own PayPal account or send an email to gt @ biiwii.com with a request
to cancel and it will be done promptly. You will remain on the
email distribution list until the current payment expires.
Remember that annual subscriptions are not refundable. top
